If they built a new airport in the thames estuary then LHR would be likely to close. Remember that although Heathrow is in a particular place, aircraft have to fly to/from the airport and this constitutes SID's (standard instrument departure) and STAR's (Standard Terminal Arrival) Heathrow has numerous stacks for inbounds (all are VOR's at Ockham, Biggin Hill, Lambourne and Bovingdon) LHR uses most of London as its airspace, it could never share with an airport of equivalent size or bigger. The sky is congested and the airspace is complex. I could make a whole post on its own relating to airspace and its complexity.

Additionally, if you tried to make 2 such airports work you have no guarantee that you'd get the business at the new airport. Airlines love Heathrow, it's the place to be. Montreal tried to replace one airport with another and it failed (Montreal Mirabel) The airlines did not want to move.

Try building a new airport, the tree huggers, local councillors and other NIMBY's will just moan and campaign bringing in inquiry after inquiry which would put the project back about 20+ years and probably leading to it getting cancelled. They've tried to push the ideas before like with Maplin Sands and also a place in Buckinghamshire but all caused too much of a stir. Expanding Heathrow is the only realistic option. Heathrow really offers West London a lot, losing it would not be good for the local area.

So what's wrong with the argument of leaving it as it is?

In an age of ever more stringent emission controls and the move to renewable energy (which seems to gather pace every year) how do we know what the airline industry will look at in 20 years time.

Heathrow serves a very useful function, it acts as the main premier airport for London why on earth do we need to make it bigger?

Can see the interests of BAA being served by that with the so called growth and increased earnings per share, but at what price? The destruction of he villages?

What is all reality would the local people of Hayes, Harlington and beyond get from expansion? Not much is the truth. Some employment certainly but what is that worth when places alongside the open borders concept with the EU? Not much I wager.

If BAA don't like the truth then they should not have bought the airport, if they cannot 'hack it' then it theirs to sell, perhaps even to someone who is happy to run it as it is.

scare tactics! manipulation of the press at its best, my dad always said. believe all you hear then you will eat all you see.

EU Directive No. 456179
In order to bring about further integration with the Single European currency, all citizens of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland must be made aware that the phrase 'Spending a Penny' is not to be used after 31st December 2014....

From this date onwards, the correct terminology will be:

'Euronating'.

Thank you for your attention.

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Its not always the biggest and the bestest, its them that make the least mistakes.

I agree with Jim

All of this "unless we get another runway we will close" argument is crap. It sound like a spoilt child demanding attention

There is no way LHR will ever close. A new airport would just stop it's out of control expansion

It's all about increasing profits for BAA and shareholder returns nothing else.

Mind you T5 was built with a view that another runway would follow. I don't think we have seen the end of the argument (or the tactics) just yet.

I'm sure we haven't.

No boss wants to see his empire stagnate.

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Lets be careful out there !

^^^ By the same token though surely no area or region wants to see it's economy stagnate, or worse still, decline ?

Heathrow is responsible for providing a lot more than the estimated 40-50,000 jobs immediately attached to the airport. It indirectly provides employment to probably double that number over a much wider area.

The decline and closures of the manufacturing, steel and coal industries had a devastating effect on whole cities, towns and villages across the country. Effects that many have never recovered from to this day. Does anyone really think that our locality would be improved by downsizing or, heaven forbid, closing Heathrow ?

I know from bitter experience how difficult jobs are to come by in our neck of the woods, and that in a supposedly 'thriving' area. Stifling or closing an airport that has been in our midst longer than many of the present population will make things a whole lot worse, not better.

The irony of Heathrow is that it's a victim of its own success in becoming a major hub for worldwide air traffic, not least because of its location. The blame for failing to integrate the airport with its surroundings and providing adequate infrastucture lies fairly and squarely at the feet of the politicians who cannot see beyond their prospects at the next election.

No change there then.

No one said LHR would close if it didn't get another runway, however it would stifle capacity and airlines will opt for more accommodating airports (Schiphol, CDG, Frankfurt) Other London options are available obviously but the airlines don't want to take them up, they want Heathrow. Slots at LHR are expensive and sought after for a reason, because there is a high demand for them.
As I said before, the moment Delta, Continental, US airways etc were allowed in to LHR a few years ago they ditched Gatwick right away.

Building another airport is the only thing that will close Heathrow, as I said before, look at airspace structure and you will then understand why.

As Moley said, LHR provides a lot more than just for West London. A friend of mine told me her dad is a firefighter at Heathrow and her father lives in Bicester. Losing LHR could honestly wreck West London. The haulage firms and companies that rely on LHR would just move away with the loss of many jobs and LHR would just be turned in to a housing estate. LHR is a business and needs to grow.

What Moley said about the politicians is right! They just drag their heels over it and have done for about 40yrs.

But why does it need to grow? London will always need an airport, Heathrow will always be that airport.

Some perfectly good business thrive on doing what they do well and within their limitations. They do not need to open premises up and down the Country simply because they can.

Look at the exponential growth Tesco has endured over the last decade/15 years, that is now harming them as they are struggling to meet ever greater profit forecasts.

The World is entering a new phase, people will have less disposable spending going forward something Tesco are in fact beginning to discover. More and more people will look for cheaper alternatives such as the no frills airlines. Jet2 for example are doing a flight to Newark New Jersey (this is one of the main airports of New York and due to the pathway train you can be in Manhattan within 25 minutes of leaving the airport, a feat Heathrow can not manage despite being many times closer to the centre) (a market tester) from Manchester later this Month for around £260 return. I know of persons from London who will travel and use this facility, 2 persons return to NY for around £500 I bet the Heathrow airlines couldn't touch that with a barge pole.

Part of that reason is the cartel the airlines run at LHR and given time this will be their undoing. If Manchester can allow the no Frills to run premium routes why can not Heathrow? If this route proves to be a success and I suspect it will then no doubt other no frills will look to put on routes, the service will expand to possibly include Gatwick and Stanstead, the cartel will have their grip on the premium routes broken.

Yes Heathrow must adapt to survive but this does not mean additional expansion.

The World is changing certainly but that means airports have to operate more cleverly, the elephant airlines with their high charges like BA will need to evolve if they are to survive.

I do believe the future lays more with aircraft development than airport capacity to accommodate what we have, Runway's would be shorter, that would free up a huge amount of space for service of pre and post flight check outs, also would allow the addition of extra runway, by shortening as the long take off, and landing, distances will be overcome by technology, of their power plants, but I wont hold my breath, as nothing will be done until its a problem, and probably too late.

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Its not always the biggest and the bestest, its them that make the least mistakes.