*** UPDATED SATURDAY NOVEMBER 24th 2012 @ 0900 Hrs ***
The calm before the storm ??
First of all I'm quite suprised by the lack of activity so far this morning on the weather websites I frequent, but I expect that to pick up as we go through the day.
The centre of this Low Pressure System is still some way to our south, and it will be a few hours yet before it reaches our southern shores, but even then the worst of the winds will be on its southern flank some hours later. Best guesstimate so far is for the worst of the winds to affect Southern Coastal Counties late this evening and overnight, then run through the rest of The South East during the early hours of Sunday morning.
Predicted windspeeds have so far been up and down like a yo-yo to be honest. The main concern right now seems to be for rainfall amounts and further flooding. The West Country may yet again bear the brunt of this, with a further 1-2 inches falling on already saturated ground.
The very latest model runs show this system following a near identical track to the Storm of October 1987. Landfall expected along the South Coast in the Hampshire/Dorset region, then travelling rapidly north east out into the North Sea off the coast of East Anglia by Sunday afternoon. Having said that I don't think this system is going to be anywhere near as severe, but still needs paying attention to.
During daylight hours here in the London area I think its just going to be a case of some pretty wet and miserable conditions. The worst of the windy weather will most likely be overnight.
My thoughts on potential windspeeds ?
Inland I think 45-50mph gusts. Southern Coastal Counties, 55-65mph gusts quite possible, I wouldn't want to be crossing The English Channel on a boat or ferry overnight though. Storm Force 10 gales are being predicted there.
Be careful out there. Moley
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